Good Signing, Bad Signing – Round 3 – Corner the Market

Keenan Lewis had only one fewer pass defense than Richard Sherman last year, and his 71 tackles show he’s not afraid to get his nose dirty.

Good Signing – Keenan Lewis to the Saints – 5 years, 26.5 mil – …but only 10.5 mil guaranteed, so it’s not quite the commitment it appears. Keenan Lewis was 2nd in the NFL with 23 passes defensed last year, one less than the vociferous Richard Sherman (who will get plenty of chances to back his talk up when he gets targeted 9,124 times this season), and five more than the 18 Patrick Robinson, his projected compatriot, defensed last season. Lewis’ downside is that he’s not a ballhawk. The Saints defense was so bad that a) it’s going to need more than one season to turn around (but you didn’t need me to tell you that), and b) is going to need sure tacklers with versatility to slow teams down before it can begin to worry about ballhawking, because they literally didn’t stop anyone last year. Keenan can play inside and outside in man or zone looks, and even helps out on special teams, and the timing was most certainly right if the Revis trade is imminent. A Revis extension would have inflated most of the DB salaries you’re seeing in the press clippings.

Bad Signing – Cary Williams to the Eagles – 3 years, 17 mil – Also with 10.5 mil guaranteed. Unless the league completely missed on Williams, he appears to be a 7th round pick who maximized his talents in one system, and I’d be very precarious about expecting the same results in another system. The Ravens 3-4 has very different responsibilities from a standard 3-4, and plopping free agent tender on someone who isn’t likely to change your defense doesn’t seem wise.

Good Signing – Connor Barwin to the Eagles – 6 years, 36 mil – Want someone that will change your locker room and bring a new scheme to life? Enter the Kramerical hair and down-to-down energy of Connor Barwin. If this guy isn’t the leading jersey seller in Philly next season, either I’ll be surprised or he’ll be hurt. If you’re going to bring the 3-4 into Philly, you need at least one guy who can flex DE/LB and effectively rush the passer, and that’s what Barwin’s job will be. Linebackers are also the heart of the 3-4, and familiarity with scheme will meet familiarity in personnel as Barwin will be rejoining former Texan teammate DeMeco Ryans. (Note: Barwin has already posted a YouTube link to Motown Philly on his Twitter page)

Bad Signing – Aaron Ross to the Giants – 1 year, anything – Let’s start this one with the following: Aaron Ross was benched in Week 13 and never seen again in year one of a three year deal in Jacksonville. Just read that 4-5 times. Even if it’s the veteran minimum to add depth, if I’m a QB and all I have to do to get a crucial first down is put as many receivers on the field as it takes to get him on in one-on-one coverage, I’m doing it. He’s not going to help you on special teams, he was a brutally unproductive punt returner, has positively NO ball skills (I have NEVER seen anyone in position to intercept a ball only to have it whizz right by his hands or helmet as he has), and has a fatal tendency to fall asleep on plays. Don’t believe me? Look who Steve Spagnuolo went after time and time again in his return to Giants Stadium as head coach of the Rams. Ross was also benched in that game, too. There’s no reason to bring him back.

Good Signing – Steven Jackson to the Falcons – 3 years, 12 mil – and only 4 mil guaranteed. The Falcons find an ideal and immediate Michael Turner replacement who will pay more dividends in the passing game. Jackson’s final year in St. Louis was marred by Jeff Fisher trying to big-time him to show the organization who the new sheriff in town is. Jackson’s biggest myth is his durability. He’s only missed 13 games in his 9 year career, and even with the Jeff Fisher nonsense still gained 1042 yards on split time (that’s his EIGHTH consecutive 1000 yard season for those keeping score). He’s going to fit right in with a team that thinks it’s headed for the mountaintop. He should be energized and maximized in this regime with very low risk.

Bad Signing -Matt Cassel to the Vikings – 1 year, 4 mil – If you’re going to put a fire under Christian Ponder’s ass with a veteran, don’t do it with a veteran who has the same exact skill set he does. Sure, this more clearly defines what your offense is going to be like, but Cassel gets petrified under pressure and had every opportunity on Earth to pull the Chiefs together with leadership qualities he doesn’t have. If I’m Ponder, I’m more scared of Joe Webb than I am of this signing. Job’s mine. Fuck Percy. Let’s play ball. Huh?

Good Signing, Bad Signing – Round 2

Jared Cook has started 12 NFL games in his 4 year career. He was available for 59 of them. He just signed a 35 million dollar contract with 16 million guaranteed.

Day 1 Aftershock – Disclosure of the Jared Cook deal – Oh. My. God. Can you remember the last time a free agent tight end got more millions in guaranteed money than starts over a four year career? Because I sure fucking can’t. How does a team let a proven slot beast in Danny Amendola walk to New England and sign this guy instead? I just don’t understand it. You fail to upgrade on the outside of the formation, and you downgrade on the inside of the formation. Even worse, Cook is 248lbs and lean for his frame, and will likely need a blocking complement that, if I know Jeff Fisher, will keep him off the field on rushing downs. I really don’t see how this signing works out.

Good Signing – Detroit Lions get Reggie Bush – 4 years, 16 mil – Reggie Bush isn’t the Canton-caliber league-changing tailback his USC lineage or draft status suggested, and after 7 years as a pro, he’s really become underrated for it. His two years in Miami were certainly productive (2,072 yards rushing at around 4.6 a carry, 78 catches for 588 yards, 15 total TDs) and there are fewer players more versatile. I’m not of the belief that you don’t sign backs in free agency under any circumstances. If you can find someone that instantly opens up your playbook and allows you to do things you couldn’t do last year, you can totally jump in as long as you don’t over pay. Reggie Bush does just that. You can line him in the slot and motion him to the backfield and vice versa. You can run him between the tackles, since he’s now shown that ability in two seasons in Miami. He also has shown the ability to learn and develop throughout his career. You don’t get 88 catches as a rookie running back from Drew Brees if you can’t be trusted, and you never heard a peep out of him on those bad Miami teams. I think he takes this opportunity head on and maximizes it. Don’t be surprised if the Lions look like geniuses for this.

Bad Signing – Titans get Shonn Greene – 3 years, 10 mil – Mike Francesa once aptly described Shonn Greene’s running ability in the following swipe: “You could have him run through our studio right now, and he’d trip over the furniture.”. Greene has a skill set, but it’s a very mid-round draftable one. The philosophy is a decent one: find a complementary back to Chris Johnson and keep his body fresh for a 16-game haul with our additions at O-line and tight end, but it just doesn’t warrant free agent money.

Good Signing – Cliff Avril to the Seahawks – 2 years, 15 mil – If the Seahawks are stockpiling, defensive end is a good place to stockpile. Avril is a potent pass rusher that won’t be asked to do too much, nor will be pushed into the leadership and superstar roles that got him in trouble in Detroit. This is low-risk when you have the cap space they do, and easily extricable if it fails.

Bad Signing – Danny Amendola to the Patriots – 5 years, 31 mil – If Tom Brady were 30 years old, this would be much better. A 35 year old Tom Brady doesn’t need this uncertainty. Wes Welker is only 31, and to pay a premium for a guy with an identical-looking skill set and pedigree without the 112 catch per year production to match it (and who doesn’t exactly have an injury-free resume himself) just because he’s four years younger doesn’t help your offense right now in what appears to be a closing Brady window. Amendola gets vastly overpaid here, and not only does New England look curmudgeonly at best while doing a disservice to their quarterback…

Good Signing – Wes Welker to the Broncos – 2 years, 12 mil – …but Wes Welker single-handedly crashed the slot receiver market by letting his emotions get the best of him and immediately signing with Peyton Manning’s Broncos to get back at them. Wes could have absolutely wound up with a contender and been paid at least in the 8 to 9 mil/year range had he sat back as a free agent and let two or more teams bid for him in the wake of multiple lesser receivers signing for 11-12 mil/year. This single-handedly dictated the Amendola contract, and will positively impact the Victor Cruz contract, if and when it’s signed. The Broncos look like absolute geniuses here, and it doesn’t require deep analysis.

Bad Signing – Lorenzo Alexander to the Cardinals – 3 years, 9.5 mil – 8 career sacks, 164 total tackles in six seasons in Washington. Again, you can’t draft something like this if you need it? You have to dole out free agent money? You have to overpay for a role-playing linebacker in a league where nickel is the base defense now? The Cardinals are looking alot like the Cardinals again.

Good Signing – Dashon Goldson to the Buccaneers – 5 years, 41.5 mil – Expensive? Yes. The best safety tandem in the NFL with a bargain of a rookie contract from Mark Barron? Yes. If this is indeed part of a plan to trade picks for Darelle Revis and build a powerful secondary to defend the Saints and Falcons, the money is worth it. They’re not winning this division with their offense as constructed. They have to create takeaways to counter the gap in yardage production, and an impactful safety that not only creates an instant interception threat in the deep but can mentor the safety of the future while in his prime, is worth the premium. I wouldn’t be defending this contract as much if he was single-handedly expected to turn a secondary around, like he would if he signed in Philly, but as part of a larger vision with multiple purposes, he’s a fit.

More Good Signings - C’mon, get happy!

Andy Levitre to the Titans – If the Titans are going to run the ball as much as they appear, then they have to get back to the dominant up-front form they exhibited in 2008. Getting a star interior lineman like Levitre is a good start.

Rashard Mendenhall to the Cardinals – At one year, two and a half mil, and with Beanie Wells and LaRod Stephens-Howling gone, Mendenhall is a suitable flyer to take. Mendenhall was never Steeler material from the start, but that doesn’t mean that in a smaller market team with far less mystique he can’t return to the versatile form he showed more than a few flashes of as a young’un. Bruce Arians knows what he’s doing here, having coached him in Pittsburgh.

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to the Broncos – After an ignominious time in Philly (where often, really, he was their best corner), DRC gets a chance on a contender to get a job and stick with it. If nickel is the new base, DRC could very easily climb the depth chart and make plays against teams passing too much to catch up with Peyton’s production to parlay himself as a prime target in next offseason’s free agency. In an offseason headed by a Revis trade, it’s a safe bet to bet on yourself as a corner and try to be the lead dog next year.

Jason Jones to the Lions – Detroit and Seattle swap pass rushers and have a more athletic player who’s less of a headache for it. Low risk, high reward.

 

If the Revis trade happens tomorrow, the next post might be all corners, as they’ll likely fall like dominoes.

 

 

 

Good Signing, Bad Signing – Round 1

Well. That was fast.

The first day of 2013 NFL free agency was expected to be slow, and it’s been anything but. Largely, this is because of how many teams released capable veterans the night before the league year opened, shifting the landscape of positional needs, cap space, and availability. Let’s start with the biggies, shall we? I’m going to do this wave by wave, primarily to show you why certain teams succeed year after year. Shrewdness at this time of year for the perennially successful executives who don’t need to make splashes to pad their resumes pays off lovely.

I’d want to see a 1000 receiving yard season out of someone before I gave them $67,000,000.

Good Signing – Chris Canty to the Baltimore Ravens - 3 years, 8 mil - Low risk, very high reward. Canty is an absolute specimen that has exceled both in 3-4 and 4-3 systems. His 6-7 frame allows him to change his body depending on what they primarily need him to do, and obviously is a threat to bat balls down. The Giants got a lesser talent, and slightly less versatile player in Cullen Jenkins at the same price. The Ravens get a better pass rusher and more versatile lineman than the departing Paul Kruger.

Bad Signing – Percy Harvin traded to the Seattle Seahawks – 6 years, 67 mil, 1st + 7th round picks in 2013, 3rd round pick in 2014 - How a four-year locker room cancer, who never had a 1000-yard season, who can migraine on you and miss games any given week, can warrant such compensation from a team that already has a legitimate return game and slot receiver I will never understand. Kudos to the Minnesota front office for getting this headache off your hands, and with it two chances in the first round to get his replecement, or better, a chance to move up and select essentially any player you want out of the first round of this draft. Is Harvin versatile? Yes. Is he a unique player you have to gameplan for? Yes. Is Randall Cobb worth $70 million? You just answered your own question about how good a move this was. Seattle is fortunate to have a good young team with the cap room to do this, but this is a blatant overpayment for someone who clearly was an unprofessional front-runner on the team he came from.

Good Signing – Isaac Sopoaga to the Philadelphia Eagles – 3 years, 12 mil – Excellent contract. Sopoaga brings not only depth to a defensive line that was putrid last year, but also fills a team-wide physicality deficit. Sopo isn’t going to sit back and let his teammates do the 88% thing after making a name for himself on the Niners defense. He’s versatile enough to play NT on some 3-4 downs and inside as a 4-3 DT. He doesn’t flip your team upside down, but the money is right, and you know you’re getting effort down for down. He’s a culture changer.

Bad Signing – Mike Wallace to the Miami Dolphins – 5 years, 65 mil - This is a fucking joke, right? Is there any indication of how poorly prioritized the Dolphins front office is than seeing them let their future Hall of Fame left tackle walk, then signing the deep threat you need him to block for to $30 million guaranteed? If Tannehill doesn’t develop like he should in sophomore slump fashion, Wallace will be the first off the boat leaking press clippings. To not build the team from the inside out when your QB  is not only young, but raw and unpolished from lack of NCAA experience violates every principle this league was built upon. It’s like Jeff Ireland was running the place or something.

Good Signing – Dunta Robinson to the Kansas City Chiefs – 3 years, 15 mil - and only 4 mil guaranteed, putting the basement of this contract right at the ground floor. Best case scenario is Dunta works with Brandon Flowers and Eric Berry to form a pretty mean little secondary on a team that needs it. Worst case scenario is Dunta becomes a nickel specialist and not an every down player, but even in that role with Atlanta he didn’t do poorly. Nickel defenders are nice to have if you can find them.

Bad Signing – Dwayne Bowe stays with the Kansas City Chiefs – 5 years, 56 mil – and 26 mil guaranteed for the third absurd receiver contract of the day. Few receivers in the NFL are targeted more than Bowe, and most who are have more to show for it. Granted, the KC QB sitch hasn’t been stellar, but if you’re not contending this year, and you have the choice to extend a receiver or a left tackle, you take the left tackle. Additionally, this is a left tackle you can bargain with, since he was essentially “discovered” after being converted from guard and playing in the shadow of D’Brickashaw Ferguson in college. Bowe is indeed gifted, but this catch rate is indicative of just how badly KC needs to improve behind center to even compete for a playoff spot. With the Fasano, Robinson and Bowe signings, and the Alex Smith trade, the Chiefs appear to be another team building wrongly from the outside in.

Good Signing – Patrick Chung to the Philadelphia Eagles – 3 years, undisclosed – but reportedly dirt cheap. Chung is a bad man back there, and presuming Chip Kelly still knows how to utilize him like he did when they were together at the University of Oregon, this is an absolute steal. The Eagles haven’t had anyone to fear back there since Brian Dawkins left, and Eagles fans will immediately be drawn to any semblence of physicality in the secondary he provides. Few players needed a change of scenery as badly as he did.

Bad Signing – Every Tight End – Everyone fails here, even the Bears, who got a supremely athletic, if at times goofy, Martellus Bennett for 4 years and 20 million. Jared Cook was overly ogled by the Titans and Rams despite being a cancer in Tennessee and proving nothing despite having a veteran quarterback in Matt Hasselback one season, and a chance to become Jake Locker’s favorite target in the next. I don’t see any reason he fits in St. Louis. Anthony Fasano, Delanie Walker and James Casey had under 350 yards from scrimmage last season and somehow each got a free agent deal, likely benefiting from the number of times each was on national television this year. It’s not that I don’t like these players (well, ok I don’t like Jared Cook), it’s that I don’t see why you would spend anything more than the minimum to get this kind of production. There’s nothing amongst these guys’ 2012 seasons that can’t be replaced with some patient scouting or good drafting. You mean to tell me Dustin Keller can’t outproduce all of these guys in the right year?

Worst Signing – Mike DeVito to the Kansas City Chiefs – 3 years, 12 mil – I need this guy’s agent. How on EARTH were two teams fighting for this guy? Do you REALLY mean to tell me that your general manager is incapable of finding a 3-4 defensive end in the middle of the draft that primarily stops the run, doesn’t rush the passer at ALL (2.5 sacks in 6 seasons) and gives good energy? How has Osi Umenyiora not tweeted about this contract yet? Wow, Pioli has lost it.

Watch how much more sensible round 2 gets.

Super Bowl XLVII

The 2012 season ends with a game that’s nearly impossible to predict.

Two weeks of tricep talk, Moss mouthing, tat spat, and Joe jawing have come to this: a Super Bowl that is essentially the antithesis of the previous five in strategy, and far from prediction-friendly. SPTKF will have to go deep on this one. Brady-Manning, Warner-Roethlisberger, Brees-Manning, Rodgers-Roethlisberger, Brady-Manning. The last five Supes have featured a marquee quarterback matchup, from which a defensive game plan can be drawn up to answer it, from which offensive playmakers can reliably be productive, and from which most speculation came. This one features a quarterback that has reliably shown deep ball beauty over the past 5 seasons, but really only in the past two games has shown any touch for the intermediate game that really separates the men from the boys. The other quarterback is a caveat to the physical freaks of nature that wet alot of palettes in the draft room until accuracy, vision, and pocket presence become paramount and they get left behind. Neither of these guys are one of the five best quarterbacks in the league, and both teams can survive a bad day from their signal caller. That hasn’t been the case since Super Bowl XLI, when the Bears had to hide Rex Grossman.

What makes these Super Bowl teams hard to match up with is their plethora of offensive role players. The Niners, in fact, are so stacked with guys that can make 2-4 plays per game that they were able to pretty much eliminate Vernon Davis, yeah THAT Vernon Davis, from their offensive gameplan for several weeks to help block for the read option scheme, and they didn’t miss a beat. Michael Crabtree, Delaney Walker, LeMichael James, Vernon Davis, Kendall Hunter, Ted Ginn, Kyle Williams and Frank Gore very often beat their opponents in mosaic fashion, preventing you from keying in on specific formations, plays or concepts to stop. The way to defeat San Francisco is to physically impose your will upon them up front. The problem with that? They’re FUCKING HUGE up front.

It’s safe to say the Niners have drafted well

As if behemoths like Alex Boone and Joe Staley don’t scare you enough, backups like veteran Leonard Davis, who are more than capable in limited reserve roles combined  with Davis at the tight end form 7 or sometimes 8 man walls that require real technique and endurance to regularly penetrate. This is going to be a problem up front for Baltimore, and one that cannot be allowed to control the game if they want to win. I don’t think it will be contained. Frank Gore will lead this game in rushing yards. 

Thusly, if the Niners control on the ground like the numbers say they will, Baltimore will win this game by answering through the air, and with Joe Flacco playing like he’s been playing the last two games, there’s no reason not to put the game in his hands. Joe Flacco will lead this game in passing yards, completions, passing touchdowns, and will throw one interception. Baltimore doesn’t have the smattering of eligibles San Francisco has, but I think the Niners would trade any of their receivers for Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith, who are the two best wideouts on the field in this game. Anquan Boldin will lead this game in receptions, Torrey Smith score a touchdown of over 40 yards. The new twist in January has been the application of the tight end, which has allowed Flacco to make safer intermediate throws within the cover 2 shell when they don’t feel like being aggressive enough to stretch it with Torrey just yet. Dennis Pitta will catch at least 6 passes in this game and score a touchdown. Baltimore is well-coached and well-run. You don’t take the PR risk of dumping Cam Cameron in season if you don’t actively see this opportunity slipping away and do something drastic to seize it. They will have no problem playing this game from behind if they have to, and with the staunch front-seven of the Niners, I think they will. Ray Rice will be held under 60 rushing yards.

…but let’s say I got a little crazy…

Let’s say Baltimore’s veteran linebackers and defensive front get their techniques down and don’t get bullied around the line of scrimmage, play their fits well, and contain the read option game. Let’s also say that freed up a certain eighth man in the box who has a history of delivering knockout blows to ball carriers in recent years. What if the read option’s greatest flaw, which is how much it exposes your quarterback to injury versus the traditional formations, rears its ugly head?

What if Super Bowl XLVII needed a hero?

In perhaps the boldest prediction in the seven year history of this blog, I’m predicting Colin Kaepernick won’t finish this game because Bernard Pollard will hit him especially hard in the open field towards the end of the first half. What does Baltimore have to lose by throwing in a helmet to helmet or two? He’s really the only player on the Niners that can single handedly win the game. Why not come out swinging?

I think the Ravens know they’re physically overmatched. The Niners have 3-4 ways they can win this game. The Ravens have one, and that is Joe Flacco playing out of his mind.

In the final prediction of SPTKF7, I predict the 49ers will defeat the Ravens 31-27, with the MVP at 50-1 odds to be Alex Smith, who will step in and play admirably in Kaepernick’s absence and ride the physcial advantage they have up front to victory. He will then ride into the sunset as the once and future king, being unceremoniously dumped in the offseason and causing a free agency shitstorm.

What? Can you think of a better ending?

See you at the draft

Conference Championship Recap

5-5 in the playoffs. I at least looked like a genius till about 4:30.

Should he have gotten 15 yards for this for making contact with an official?

At Least I’m Not A Falcons Fan…

…I’ll grant the intellect of most Atlanta football fans the discerning nature to know that that game was the furthest thing from over at 17-0 in the 1st half. They just watched a 20-point lead get blown to a lesser team last week in the same building. What’s really going to eat me up is that my team only had 3 drives in the second half after controlling the line of scrimmage for most of the first. What cost the Falcons their season wasn’t the two turnovers. The game was already within reach by then, though they definitely didn’t help, and have gone under the radar as an indictment of Matt Ryan in the clutch.

The Falcons died when they decided not to respect the kind of game they were in, and with 8 minutes to go, decided to put all their eggs in the basket of one drive. Granted, methodical drives are what the Falcons have done best in the Mike Smith era, but this time of year is won and lost on explosive pass plays, and with 3 playmakers dying to go out and get balls in intermediate and deep spaces. They didn’t respect that, and they didn’t respect that their defense already gave up 28 points. They thought they could drive it down once and hold them on D on the way back. Awful idea, especially when you haven’t scored in the 2nd half. The problems with methodical driving late in games (while you’re losing… Jesus…) like this are several: the more plays in a drive, the more parts in the machine, and the more things that can go wrong. Coming off consecutive drives ending in turnovers and showing no urgency is not the way you seize the day and get to the Super Bowl. More parts in the machine also means more ways your players can get hurt, and Matt Ryan sprained his AC joint in the final series of downs, likely affecting him ever so slightly on the designed rollout and the 4th down failure. Most teams who stop attacking in the playoffs find themselves not playing. Gotta wonder if that’s as close as they’ll ever get.

At Least I’m Not A Patriots Fan…

…because after a 9-0 start being carried by a great defense, Tom Brady is 8-6 in the postseason, and you can’t remember the last dominant performance he had in a postseason game against a decent opponent (If you want to count his victory over Tebow’s Broncos in 2011, go right ahead). The Patriots found themselves to be a very different team when they didn’t get the early lead, and with nobody trustworthy to throw to deep, the Ravens were able get away with their defensive scheme. The Patriots chose to conduct their offense within Baltimore’s Cover 2 shell, and never had the stones to stretch it deep. Thusly, Baltimore’s bad defense never looked that bad because the fences weren’t tested.

Joe Flacco, on the other hand, showed excellent moxie, and hit the plays he knew he could hit within the shell. New England shaded their DBs back, the wind picked up, the run didn’t quite show up the way Baltimore wanted, and Flacco had to live off of Boldin in the slot and his tight ends. It was really a performance ripe with adaptations on the fly, and one deserving of a road playoff win. 3 of the 4 teams this weekend brought their A-game. You can’t do much better than that.

Conference Championships!

5-3 in the playoffs

Let’s go in chronological order.

The Niners are road favorites for a reason. More than any other team this year, they’ve demonstrated a dominance at the line of scrimmage and in the physical battle through one-on-one matchups that no other team has over this season, and really last season aside from a few special teams blunders (and thinking Carlos Rogers can cover a slot receiver). The question isn’t whether Atlanta can stop the Niner defense. The Atlanta Falcons under Mike Smith, for as long as advanced metrics were being calculated, have been the most consistent down-for-down team they’ve ever measured. I think given the home dome, veteran QB who’s ready for this stage, and versatility of their offense, the Falcons will definitely score somewhere around 24-27 points in this game. In my opinion, this is a Mike Nolan vs. Colin Kaepernick game. Are you taking the physical freak of a quarterback despite the fact that he’s only making his 11th career start, or are you taking the veteran defensive coordinator banking that he’ll figure out how to stop the read option he’s seen before. The Falcons should be able to draw on their experience with Cam Newton and Russell Wilson to devise a better gameplan than the finesse-stricken Packers did last week. I think, and rightfully so, this game will be an indictment of the Niner offense. Was the quarterback change worth it? Why isn’t Michael Crabtree in jail? Did Michael Crabtree get that much better? Can they still establish the run with Frank Gore like they did last year if Colin gets stopped? The questions the Niners had to answer were on that side of the ball, and if they’re answered, they’re going to the Super Bowl.

By the same token, one of these game isn’t going to go the way you think it will, and I think it’s this one. Keep in mind that this is still Kaepernick’s 11th start. Keep in mind that his first playoff matchup was a dream for him physically. Keep in mind this was the same team that came up absolutely flaccid in Seattle in primetime just a few weeks ago, and this home-field advantage should be more impactful than one from within their division. Keep in mind that Mike Nolan used to coach alot of these guys in San Francisco, further increasing his motivation and clueing him into their tendencies. I think Atlanta’s defense will be the wild card in this one and show up, keeping the game close and favoring a pocket-passing Matt Ryan in the fourth quarter over Kaepernick’s longer-developing plays. The Falcons get their validation with some home cookin. Falcons 27, Niners 23.

I think this one goes a little more chalk, but some of the same analytic principles apply. Everyone thinks this is a Ray Lewis vs. Tom Brady game, when it’s really a Bill Belichick vs. Joe Flacco game. Flacco has the worst thing you can have going into a playoff game vs. Bill Belichick: a concretely defined plan for success. The Ravens got here hitting home runs in the deep passing game, pitching screens to Ray Rice, and a steady diet of Rice and Bernard Pearce in the run game. Bill will take two of these things away and live with the third, which I think will be Bernard Pearce in the run game. Unless he goes off for 150+, I think Belichick will get his DBs to GTFB where the Broncos didn’t, and contain the Ravens’ swinging for the fences enough for Brady to be Brady and outperform it. These two teams know each other all to well for there to be many surprises, and because of that, the better team on paper shines through. Patriots 30, Ravens 24.

 

The Gushfest – End of Season Awards

Another year, another slew of great performances, and most striking of them is how many performances were done by 1st and 2nd year players. This was truly the year of the young’un.

I mean, just look at your league leaders this season.

Rushing!

Alfred Morris – Rookie – 2nd place with 1613 yards, 2nd place with 13TDs

Doug Martin – Rookie – 5th place with 1454 yards, 5th place with 11TDs

Stevan Ridley – 2nd year – 7th place with 1263 yards, 3rd place with 12TDs

Trent Richardson – 5th place with 11TDs

Mikel Leshoure – 9th place with 9TDs on

Sacks!

J.J. Watt – 2nd year – 1st place – 20.5 sacks

Aldon Smith – 2nd year – 2nd place – 19.5 sacks

Von Miller – 2nd year – 3rd place – 18.5 sacks

Interceptions!

Richard Sherman – 2nd year – 2nd place – 8

Patrick Peterson – 2nd year – 4th place – 7

Casey Hayward – Rookie – 5th place – 6

QB Rating!

Robert Griffin – Rookie – 4th place – 102.4 on 393 att

Russell Wilson – Rookie – 6th place – 100 on 393 att

Colin Kaepernick – 2nd year – 9th place – 98.3 on 218 att

Other Shit!

Blair Walsh – Rookie – 1st place with 35FG made, 2nd in average kickoff distance at 68.1

Greg Zuerlein – Rookie – 5th in average kickoff distance at 67.1

Kai Forbath – Rookie – 1st in accuracy with 17/18 FG made, has name like Kai Forbath (Name of the Year)

Andrew Luck was 7th in passing yardage

6 of the 12 playoff teams were starting 1st or 2nd year quarterbacks

Everyone who has ever thrown for 4800 yards in NFL history has averaged 38.75 TDs in the season they did it. Matthew Stafford had 20. I hate fantasy football.

One Last Fantasy Bitch (and only because the statistics made me…)

Matthew Stafford had a season only my fantasy curse could produce. Despite shattering the all-time record for pass attempts in a season with 721 (Drew Bledsoe, 1994, 691 att), and being 2nd in the league with 4,967 yards, he somehow only produced 20 passing touchdowns, and didn’t hit Calvin Johnson in the end zone until Veteran’s Day. How disproportionately unproductive is that 721/4,967/20 statistic?

In this season alone, EVERY quarterback from 3rd to 18th on the passing yardage rankings with the exception of Cam Newton at #13 (and everyone knows many of his touchdowns come on the ground) had more touchdowns through the air. This list includes all-time greats like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Sam Bradford, Carson Palmer, and Josh Freeman. Going further down the list, 21st ranked Ben Roethlisberger threw 26TDs over 3.265 yards and an injured throwing shoulder, 22nd ranked Robert Griffin needed 3,200 yards and 15 games to throw 20TDs, and 23rd ranked Russell Wilson threw 26TDs on a scant 3,118 yards.

In the all-time record book, Stafford’s season is 7th all-time in yardage. If you average every other 4800 yard season or more (there’s 12), you come up with an average of 38.75TDs to go with that season, making Stafford’s 20 look all that more disparate. In fact, you have to go ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 50TH on the all-time list (Mark Brunell’s 1996 – 4367 yards and 19TD with 20INTs) to find a passing season with that much fewer touchdowns on big yardage. Of those 50 seasons, Only Lynn Dickey’s 1983 Packers season (4458 yards, 32TDs, 29INTs), Drew Bledsoe’s 1994 Patriots season (4555 yards, 25TDs, 27INTs, and the previous record of 691 attempts), and Rich Gannon’s 2002 MVP year with the Raiders (4689 yards, 26TDs, 10INTs) make me bat an eye.

The pass attempts thing is a little harder to define, because he broke the record by 36 attempts, a full game’s worth by most standards. In this regard, there are fewer comparable seasons. The 9 other quarterback seasons that had 648 attempts or more averaged 33.78TDs per season, still well above Stafford’s 20.

I think the NFL is better without me playing fantasy.

The Awards!

My Most Improved Player goes to Michael Crabtree because this was certainly a breakout-or-bust season for who I thought was one of the more pro-ready and gifted receivers to come out of college in a while. Crabtree’s post-draft holdout and nearly 2 seasons under Mike Singletary didn’t help him, and he isn’t the gamebreaking deep-threat many of today’s top receivers are, but in an offense centered around tight end and running backs, he has carved himself a huge third down niche in spite of the additions of Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. He has been in the top 5 in receiving touchdowns, yards and catches among everyone in the NFL since Week 11, has become the league’s premier 3rd down receiver (ripping the title from Antonio Brown). Crabtree is at his best when it counts, sustaining drives and sparking them with equal effectiveness. 22 of his 85 catches were 3rd down conversions, the best percentage in the league, and 11 of them were on 3rd and more than 7. Crabtree made himself indispensable in a year he could have been made unemployed.

(Side Note: Vincent Jackson led the league for the 2nd consecutive year in percentage of receptions going for first downs with 84.7%. In the past two seasons 105 of his 132 catches have moved the sticks.)

The SPTKF Coach of the Year always deviates from the path a little. To me, it’s not about how high your ceiling is, but how low your basement is. Alot of guys can come in and improve a team by 3-4 wins just because they’re a fresh voice in year one, and if they don’t, well, they’re new! Give them a chance. I need a coach that stood to lose alot with a bad season, made risks with his decisions that paid off, and thought outside the box enough to scare his opponents. In the 7-year history of SPTKF, no coach has embodied my intentions for the award more than Pete Carroll did coaching the Seahawks this season. Not everyone has the balls to start a 3rd round pick at quarterback when the team just signed a free agent to a 4-year deal for the same job in the same offseason even if they DO see what Carroll saw in Russell Wilson when he got to training camp. If the team spends that kind of money on Matt Flynn, Carroll benches him, and the Wilson thing doesn’t work out, he’s looking at a third consecutive 7-9 or worse season, and he’s gone. Someone else gets the credit for the defense he built, Beast Mode toils in relative anonymity, Golden Tate toils in absolute anonymity, Sidney Rice’s contract looks like a total mistake, and the whole thing’s a mess. Many people underestimate Pete Carroll. I don’t. The man has brass ones, and he’s much more of a defensive mastermind than he’s given credit for. He built a secondary against the grain with long-armed tall freaks, generates a pass rush by allowing his D-line to play conventional pass-rush while letting Bruce Irvin (another rookie trusted to make a large impact and did) run wild off the edge without much assignment detail, and can still ram it down your throat with Marshawn to close things out.

The Comeback Player of the Year is far less controversial in Peyton Manning, who made much more than a physical comeback. I never thought Peyton’s comeback would fail because of Peyton. I thought it might hit a wall in year one because of all the new people he surrounded himself with. Hardly, and that’s what makes this comeback special. Not only did the player have to come back to the level he was used to, but he had to bring his style off the field to a new team that would hopefully adjust to it quickly. The Colts were different in that Peyton demanded he get all the practice snaps and time with the first-team offense. When he left and Curtis Painter hit the real field without even seeing the practice field, the results spoke for themselves. Denver didn’t have to just believe in Peyton’s neck. They had to believe in his habits, which one can argue speak for themselves as well, but they also had to see how fucked they were if he reinjured it by seeing how fucked the Colts were with him gone. 4659 yards and 37TDs later, even without a full recovery, I think they have their answer.

The debate over Rookie of the Year is a little senseless to me. Andrew Luck wins the Offensive Rookie of the Year hands down.

Buh waaaaah Wussell Wiwson won a pwayoff game – Yeah against a fellow rookie quarterback who might as well have been repeatedly shot by a sniper in the mezzanine during the game after he outclassed him on a bad knee in the 1st quarter.

Buh waaaaah AwGee Thwee had a bettew wating – Christ, do you even WATCH their offense? Griffin had the least learning to do of the three quarterbacks in the running for OROY. They literally brought his Baylor offense (which didn’t have a playbook) into their zone blocking scheme. Griffin never had to make more than one read on a pass play. Everything was based off of sophisticated run action against en-vogue shitty tackling technique. Mark my words, NO quarterback has had a scheme-to-ability fit like Griffin has right now in perhaps 20 years.

Another thing these two guys don’t have around them is AN ENTIRE ROOKIE CLASS OF PLAYMAKERS AROUND THEM. Luck improved his team’s win total by 9 games in one season with TWO rookie tight ends, TWO rookie receivers, and rookie Vick Ballard in his backfield. It’s one thing to step into a team that has talent and be the thing that ties it together to win games like Wilson is to Seattle. It’s one thing to be the optimal athlete to fit what a team wants to accomplish with scheme like Griffin is to Washington. It’s a totally different thing to step into a rebuild as a rookie, surround yourself with rookies, work with an interim head coach the entire year when you’re not expecting to, and still go 11-5 while showing pocket presence beyond your years and immediately stretching the field upon your arrival. Don’t let the scramblers fool you. This guy is the man. This guy is the future.

In a year without a runaway impact candidate, I’m resigned to give the Defensive Rookie of the Year to Luke Kuechly because he led the league in tackles as a rookie. I’m actually a little pissed there isn’t someone better to pick, because he was on an awful defense, but most of the defensive rookie starters from this year’s first round are on bad defenses that are still bad with them there, so it levels out. Kuechly is your stereotypical hard-nosed kid that fans love because he’s white because he’s a fundamentally sound tackler, hits hard and fast into his run fits and doesn’t miss many assignments. He’s flat out awful in coverage, however, and that might continue to get worse if he has to dial it back a half-step and do more cerebral things as a defensive leader. Regardless, most teams want an inside linebacker like this, and Carolina looks like they’ll have him for a decade.

Given the outstanding draft he had and the seemingly great coaches he hired, I’m surprised more people don’t know who Ryan Grigson is. Let me tell you. Ryan Grigson is the SPTKF7 Executive of the Year, because he had the best draft class since Jerry Reese’s 2007 Giants, wisely hired away Bruce Arians from the Steelers because of his well-known experience in turning Ben Roethlisberger from a raw product into the star he is now, and hired a defensive complement in Chuck Pagano as head coach (which also served as the reason Reggie Wayne stayed.). He also got 145 tackles, 2 sacks and 2 takeaways from an undrafted free agent in Jerrell Freeman. The Colts have introduced more rookie playmakers in one season than any NFL team I can remember in my lifetime, and they handled the #ChuckStrong thing with the utmost class. One had to be worried that the culture would change with all of the other things that changed in Indianapolis. Not so. The Colts are the same warm and fuzzy franchise they’ve always been, they’re a class act from the top down, and they have a wonderful chance to return to prominence for years to come. That’s what a good draft will do for ya.

Amongst all the Brady-Manning-Peterson talk, we all kinda missed the following season.

5177 yards, 43TD, 63% completion, 19INT, 96.3 rating.

Yup *yawn* Drew Brees threw for 5000 yards for the third time in his career, tossed 43TDs, and stayed focused on a bad team with no coaching staff, and deserves Offensive Player of the Year for the 2nd year in a row. Granted this was on a whopping 670 pass attempts, but the Saints always put up points, and could balance the attack with their running game. It was their defense that cost them their season. Let us go through a short list of all the passing records Drew Brees holds. Their controversy was their controversy, and with Sean Payton locked up for the future, it’s time to hunker down with this group and get another ring. Their window is closing.

(Side Note: Since his 16-0 season in 2007, 5 seasons of work given the 2008 knee injury, Tom Brady has thrown 187 TDs and 45 INTs. That’s a 4:1 ratio in a league where a 2:1 ratio keeps your job.)

Defensively, this year was defined by the 3-4 defensive end becoming an impact playmaker. The work of Justin Smith, Geno Atkins, and most influentially, J. J. Watt of the Houston Texans will most certainly impact this coming draft. People are going to be looking for someone this disruptive. How bad of a man was Watt this year? Well, SPTKF readers know what I like. I don’t like guys who rack up sacks and don’t put up other stats (Jason Babin’s 18 sack – 40 tackle 2011 season is a great example). I don’t like guys who can’t play the run from their position, and I don’t like guys who are renowned for their aggression, yet because of that aggression blow contain and can’t play in coverage if they’re on the back seven (James Harrison).

Everyone knows about J. J. Watt’s league-leading 20.5 sacks, but they may not know that he had 81 tackles, 15 more than any other defensive lineman this season. Most people know about his proficiency at batting balls down at the line of scrimmage, but I think you really have to look at the numbers to tell the tale. Problem is, the NFL’s official statistic doesn’t count batted balls at the line of scrimmage as a “pass defensed”, whereas other sources like ESPN do. If you equate the two, and I do, this is where Watt stands.

Yes, you’re reading that right.

Yes, you’re reading that right. J. J. Watt lead the league in sacks, led his position in tackles, and was TENTH in the league in passes defensed without ever having to cover anyone and is the SPTKF Defensive Player of the Year. The only player in NFL history to even have a season comparable to this is Reggie White’s 1991 season with the Eagles with 100 tackles, 13 batted balls, and 15 sacks. Watching him annihilate double teams in the playoffs was terrifying, and indicative of the kind of impact he had on games this year. You may not see another performance like that in 20 years.

The SPTKF7 MVP

Quarterbacks have won 10 of the last 12 MVPs, and with good reason. The league has been fortunate enough to have 2 of the 5 best quarterbacks who ever lived playing against each other year in and year out at the same time. People have tried to model their teams after this, hoping to find someone with both the physical gifts to make any throw and the brains to essentially coordinate on-the-fly. Set plays have taken a back seat to “concepts”, where both quarterbacks and receivers read what they think they see together and make timed route changes based on what happens both before and after the snap. The Internet has helped this boom as well. The perception that the game “can be figured out” mentally is the reason 9,265,432,345,098 football blogs like this one exist. Americans love the chess game played on each play before one side snaps the ball and shows their hand.

…but that alone is not what makes this game great…

What makes this game great is that it tests your brains in planning, and tests your will in execution. I think it’s been slightly lost over the past decade or so how the physical imposition of the will is truly the quickest path to victory. One player defined the “you know what’s coming and you still can’t stop it” old-school effectiveness of simply kicking the other team’s ass.

The Vikings passed the Bears, Giants, and Cowboys to make the playoffs despite an average defense, the 2nd worst passing offense, and a negative turnover ratio.

Adrian Peterson beat the odds, then proceeded to beat the brakes off of his opponents in a one-man show that produced a playoff spot, and is the SPTKF MVP. What really seals this for me is a long look at the rosters of the teams that finished just behind the Vikings in the standings, because they are all insanely more talented than the trash AD put on his back. This team was nothing special. They finished with the 3rd overall pick last year, and this year sported a defense that was 15th in scoring, 16th in yardage, 24th against the pass, and a somewhat impressive 11th against the run. The remainder of their offense aside from Peterson left even more to be desired, with the notoriously guarded Christian Ponder leading the 2nd worst passing offense in the league. Name one wide receiver they have… exactly. Wanna see just how insane AP was this year?

AP got better as the game went on, faced more eight man fronts than anyone in his era, and was still as explosive as any pass play.

Perhaps the best case for AP over a quarterback is the fact that 1,428 of his 2,096 yards on the ground came on plays of ten yards or more, essentially making him as explosive as a good passing game throughout the season. The answer to this is that this bulk speaks of inconsistency. If you gain 2/3 of your yards on 1/6 of your carries, you’re either hitting the home run or striking out. If AP was ever inconsistent this season, it wasn’t game-to-game. Peterson had 7 games of 150+ yards, tying an NFL record appropriately set by Earl Campbell, and gained 1,313 yards over an eight-game span, a first in NFL history. He’s also valuable for how he set the tone early in drives. On 1st downs with 8-10 (mostly 10) yards to gain, Peterson averaged 6.2 yards a carry for 1,096 yards.

This is the first player in NFL history that we worried about in September, where by December we were worried about who he was hitting. Congratulations.

See you Saturday.